Trade the mispricings in the probability web.
Retail looks at one prediction market. Tally watches the whole network of related markets, surfacing inconsistencies that are real, resolution-aware, and actually tradeable, then hands you the cleaner multi-leg way to express them.
No card required · 5 validated contradictions free, then plans from $19/mo.
Ether trades like leveraged Bitcoin: across past cycles it hasn't cleared its own highs without Bitcoin clearing its. With Bitcoin-above-$100k priced at 58% and Ether-above-$4k at just 40%, the model reads the Ether market as cheap to Bitcoin and leans long Ether-YES against Bitcoin-NO to capture the catch-up.
An LLM-inferred soft relationship, not a logical lock. The edge is expected value from convergence rather than a guaranteed payoff, so it's sized and ranked more conservatively (note the lower resolution confidence). This is the judgment-heavy edge a plain arithmetic scanner can't see.
Three layers between a number and a trade
Clean arithmetic arbs close in milliseconds and belong to the bots. Tally's edge is the relationships that need a model, plus a trust layer that kills false positives before you ever see them.
Relationship graph
Typed edges between logically related markets: mutual exclusion within multi-outcome groups, strict implication across events. Hard-coded first, because false positives destroy trust faster than missed trades lose money.
Resolution-aware validation
Two markets only contradict if they settle on the same underlying fact. Tally parses each market's resolution criteria and suppresses pairs that merely look related. That's the difference between us and a cheap arithmetic scanner.
Executability scoring
Flagged ≠ tradeable. Tally walks the order book to model real slippage and ranks by the spread you can actually capture, net of fees, not the theoretical one that evaporates at the touch.
What Tally caught
A delayed, public sample. The two below are filtered, and why they were filtered is the product.
The three mutually-exclusive Fed-decision outcomes price to 0.959 in aggregate (< 1). Buying every YES leg locks a guaranteed $1 payout for less than $1, net of fees.
Two-sided books with real depth behind the touch, so the spread survives slippage.
Mid prices across the 40 World Cup outcomes sum to 0.815, a tempting 18.5pt theoretical edge.
Filtered by the executability layer: the longshot legs are one-sided, with a best ask of ≈ $0.95 against a $0.005 mid. The arb is illusory; you can't actually buy those YES legs near their quote.
On the surface a federal indictment implies an indictment, suggesting a 9pt mispricing.
Suppressed by the resolution layer: the markets settle on different underlying facts. One resolves only on a federal charge, the other on any state or federal charge. Not a true contradiction.
Pricing
No permanent free tier. Every plan starts with a free trial: full Core access until you've seen 5 validated, tradeable contradictions, then pick a plan.
Starter
For the solo trader testing the water.
- ✓Full detection on one watchlist
- ✓Up to 25 tracked markets
- ✓Resolution validation + executability
- ✓Email alerts
Core
The full terminal for active traders.
- ✓Unlimited watchlists & markets
- ✓Real-time detection
- ✓Soft-relationship modeling
- ✓Trade expression + executability
- ✓Telegram & email alerts
Pro
Cross-platform desk: positions, risk, API.
- ✓Everything in Core
- ✓Kalshi + cross-platform positions & PnL
- ✓Whole-book resolution monitoring
- ✓Resolution-precedent DB + API
- ✓Team seats
See the inconsistencies you're missing.
Start with 5 validated, tradeable contradictions on the house.
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